The jobs report: minute by minute

Macro data releases are the fastest minutes in the market. This is what MYM looked like around the September NFP (non-farm payrolls) report on October 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 in Warsaw; times below are Warsaw time).

The data

The report showed 29,000 new jobs against about 90,000 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market read this as a lower chance of a Fed rate hike. US index futures rose.

Minute by minute

• 14:20–14:29: quiet, a typical minute traded about 80 contracts. Just before the release, price rose by under a hundred points.
• 14:30: a range of over 200 points in a single minute, volume about 15× higher than before the data.
• 14:30–14:33: the high from the first seconds doesn't hold. The 14:30 minute closes well below the high, and 14:33 has a clearly negative delta.
• 14:35–14:59: the second wave. The market assesses the data more calmly and by 14:55 returns close to the high of the first minute.

The rhythm of a release

The sequence fits the pattern from Order flow encyclopedia #21: liquidity pulled, a jump, a first reaction with a correction, and a second wave. Every release is different, but this rhythm recurs often.

What happened next

The regular session opened at 15:30 Warsaw time (9:30 AM ET) well above the previous day's VAH. The pre-market high was not exceeded again. The rest of the day is in the Eye training #3 exercise.

What to watch out for

• In the first seconds, slippage can be very large and the order book almost empty.
• The first move doesn't have to set the direction for the day.
• The daily plan always includes the release times. The macro calendar: Order flow encyclopedia #14.

This session against all 8 reports in 2026 (average range, direction of the first minute, upcoming dates): NFP: the US jobs report and how the Dow Jones reacts.

Exercise

For the next 3 releases at 8:30 AM ET, record: the first-minute range, whether the first minute's high (low) was exceeded within 30 minutes, and where price was at the 9:30 AM open.

Common questions

How do you know what was expected? Economic calendars publish the consensus. The market reacts to the surprise relative to expectations, not to the number itself.

Educational content, not investment advice. No signals, entries or position sizes.

♛ The Hetman Terminal is part of Club: live for Dow Jones from the Bishop plan, 6 markets (Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, crude oil, Bitcoin) and automatic detection of order flow events from the Rook plan. A session on the ♛ Hetman Index (training, simulated data) in the full panel comes with the Knight plan and above. Compare the plans →