Maria Konnikova: The Biggest Bluff, The Confidence Game, Mastermind
Trader's Library #59 · Risk, chance and decisions. Poker, cons and attentiveness: three lessons in deciding under uncertainty.
Author: Maria Konnikova · Original: The Biggest Bluff; The Confidence Game; Mastermind · Year: 2020 · Usefulness for traders: ★★★★☆
What it's about
A psychologist who went from zero to winning a poker tournament within a year describes what she learned about luck, decisions and emotions (“The Biggest Bluff”). “The Confidence Game” describes the psychology of con artists and their victims, and “Mastermind” careful observation and reasoning.
What it gives a trader
Poker is the model closest to trading: decisions with incomplete information, variance, tilt, bankroll management. “The Confidence Game” helps you recognise manipulation in the world of “signals” and “investment opportunities”.
Lessons for traders
- a good decision can produce a bad outcome and vice versa (outcome bias, Atlas of biases #28)
- tilt is a state you have to be able to recognise in yourself
- a con artist plays on your hope and self-confidence (unrealistic optimism, Atlas of biases #17)
What to watch out for
“Mastermind” is the least connected to markets.
Discussion
The discussion takes place in Hetman Capital Club (in Polish). Join the discussion in the Club →
Navigation
← #058 The Undoing Project (Michael Lewis) · Library index · #060 Quit (Annie Duke) →
Educational content, not investment advice. The book description is my own summary and assessment, not quotations. Edition details were checked in catalogues and bookshops, and where there was doubt I said so plainly.